Do today’s earnings mean the frenzy of selling is over?

After some initial weakness brought 10-year yields down to yesterday’s highs, bonds managed to calm down enough to claim a small victory at the 3pm close. It’s a welcome change in light of the recent frenzy of sales, but that change had already happened yesterday. Today’s predominantly lateral tone is best seen as confirmation of yesterday’s stabilization. From there, the objective will be to determine whether this new consolidation is there to confirm the recent weakness or to take up arms against it. From a strategic standpoint, while there is a chance that this means the selling frenzy is over, we would still need to see a steeper drop and out of range this week to confirm that.

  • Purchase of MBS from the Fed 10 a.m., 11:30 a.m., 1 p.m.

  • Unemployment claims 362 vs 335 f’cast, 351 previous

  • Q2 final GDP 6.6 vs 6.6 f’cast / prev

  • Chicago PMI 64.7 vs. 65.0 f’cast, previous 66.8


Consequently stronger to start the night session, then weaker during European hours. Yields up 1.5bp to 1.54% and MBS down almost an eighth – small-scale moves in recent context.

1:50 p.m.

Slow and steady gains throughout the day as the decompression of the recent frenzy of selling coincides with a modest buying bias among month-end / quarter-end trading needs. 10 years down 1bp to 1.515 and 2.5 MBS up almost an eighth of a point.

3:59 p.m.

An uneventful afternoon with bonds showing no impressive evidence of month-end trade impacts. The 10-year yields and MBS remain at the same levels as the last update.

MBS price overview

Prices shown below are delayed, please note the time stamp at the bottom. Real-time pricing is available through MBS Live.


UMBS 2.5

103-03: + 0-03


10 years

1.5130: -0.0260

Price at 09/30/21 4:11 PMEST

Today’s Re-pricing Alerts and Updates

8:56 a.m. : Inconsistently weaker at night; No reaction to data

MBS Live Chat Highlights

Matt graham : Confusion over RE Loan Limit: Pennymac has led the charge on this by offering 625,000 (priced at HB) as an effective compliant loan limit. They can do this with confidence because when new loan limits are announced By the end of November they will be safely higher than 625,000. The new compliant loan limits are not yet known, secretly or otherwise. But we do know what 3 of the 4 quarters of home price data suggests on the new limits. The remaining quarter could be crap and we’ll still hit 625,000 in our sleep. “

Economic calendar

Time Event Period Real Forecast Before
Thursday Sept. 30
8:30 Final GDP (%) T2 6.7 6.6 6.6
8:30 Continuing complaints (ml) we 2.802 2,800 2.845
8:30 Unemployment claims (k) we 362 335 351
9.45am Chicago PMI * Sep 64.7 65.0 66.8
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